The Democratic Brand Faces Challenges From the Unhappy Youth

The recent Global Happiness Ranking from Gallup stunned many when it reported that America dropped out of the top 20 for the first time, falling from 15^th place to 23^rd. While the self-reported happiness fell for every age group, the most precipitous drop was the under 30 group, down to a disastrous 62^nd.  This disturbing emotional change in the Gen Z segment, which now makes up about a fifth of the U.S. population, presents new challenges for the Democratic Party brand in this election year, especially in light of the spread of misleading social media among those under 30.

Finland’s Strengths And American Limitations

For the seventh consecutive year, Finland was declared the happiest country in the world (Denmark was second). In another study on integrity among major cities, Helsinki turned out to be the most honest.  Also in the latest annual index by Transparency International, Finland was the second-least-corrupt country in the world (Denmark was first).  It is insightful to recognize the key reasons for Finland’s achievements, especially compared to comparable weaknesses in the U.S.:

• Last year Finland was ranked number one for the fifth time in a row among 41 European countries for resilience against misinformation from social media
• Finland’s excellent educational system is ranked 8^th among the world’s best educated countries.
• Pioneering gender equality – Finland was the first country in the world to give women both the full right to vote and run in parliamentary elections, in 1906.
• Other important cultural factors – universal healthcare, family-friendly policies and a high trust in national institutions. (Another recent Gallup poll on trust revealed that America has the lowest confidence or trust among G-7 countries in their national government, in honest elections and especially for their judicial system.)

In a separate study in 2021 called “The Politics of Depression”, scholars found a link between ideology and unhappiness among teenagers.  Consistent for all was the influence of harmful social media.  Liberal kids reported higher rates of depression than conservatives, with liberal girls showing the highest.  Conversely conservatives see themselves as more patriotic and religious, often finding higher levels of meaning in their lives.  Another trait is a basic fear of major change, or a timid distrust of the new.

Implications For The Election

This surge of depression begs the question of what these unhappy folks, especially the under 30 group, seek from a candidate in an election year.  The most important is their desire for a strong leader. When Democrats express fear of another Trump term, most MAGA voters interpret this fear as a sign of weakness.  In another recent Gallup poll, only 38% of Americans regarded Biden as a “strong and decisive leader”, compared to 57% for Trump.  This appeal for strong leadership was twice as important as “shares my values” and “cares about people like me”, according to 2016 exit polls.

Politics has become a dominance competition, and Trump is the ultimate practitioner of this style.  He is confrontational, crude, ruthlessly belittling opponents with nick names, disruptive, embraces conflict, and regularly injects falsehoods in his comments.  For whatever reasons, young conservatives and MAGA voters associate these traits with strong leadership.  In contrast, the Democratic brand and style are perceived by Zoomers as risk-averse, less bold and provocative, even a little boring and especially “weak”.

Notwithstanding encouraging signs of economic growth, the reality is that younger voters honestly feel neglected and very concerned about the prohibitive cost-of-living conditions today. This is the chief cause of their growing unhappiness.  Democrats tend to emphasize abstract macro-economic data and not enough sensitivity to the plight of these under 30 year olds.

This quandary among young voters has become a critical challenge for repositioning Biden and the Democratic brand.  There are several transformative policies from the Biden administration that appeal greatly to Gen Z voters (e.g. climate change, abortion rights, gun control, democracy, LGBTQ, etc.), but Biden must emphasize more sympathy and also the dominance style that he exhibited in his 2024 State of the Union address to overcome these perceived economic and lifestyle concerns, even maybe learn from Finland too.